Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

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LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mainly describes why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you desire to take a look at this pie, you could make an argument that either group might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the first Canadian group given that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven video games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' (97) talks to media during a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would expect that to most likely continue," Cipollini stated. "I think we'll probably take a little more Oilers money just due to the fact that of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't purchase the Oilers need to be favored.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious question: Are these two groups much better or even worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a much better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) somewhat even worse than last year, specifically when you look at no Zach Hyman readily available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing much better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain became the second skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him a possibility to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite since of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they might give it to him here, but that's something to watch as the games start. If there is a Florida player that isn't really standing out ... there is a genuine world where it might be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been deemed a weak point on the roster, a credibility that appeared to be sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has enabled one or absolutely no goals in 5 of his past 7 starts, three of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the internet could put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have informed you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness might lastly reach the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating system having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be great with Caesars, a Florida success would be better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "Last year was a bit harder since more people liked Florida, but individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go in either case and Oklahoma City is heavily favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has an opportunity to go 6 or 7 games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)